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Baccarat is one of the few gambling games where nothing depends on the player, and the only decisions that he has to take is if he is going to stake money on the dealer’s win or his own. So the number of strategies for Baccarat is limited, and it is impossible to assure a win will happen in a game as here the results of the every game are determined purely by chance.
Normally to either eight, or six decks of playing cards are used in the game, and both player and the dealer get two (or in rare cases – three) cards. So the number of potential combinations is numbered in millions, and it is not possible to build a mathematical model of a game. Even card counting, which is so popular in blackjack, and was used in baccarat, is useless casinos online – as the results of dealing are determined by random numbers generator, and all decks would be mixed after each round.
Strategy in baccarat: sizes of bets
The only decision left to the player in Baccarat online is how to carefully make his bets. This approach is based on a very simple rule: the edge the casino has is large is some cases, and smaller in others, and that’s why the probability of a win varies.
For a game with eight decks (which is most common type of the game) the table of potential outcomes is shown below:
Bet on dealer
| Payout by casino | Number of combinations | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer won | 0.95 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.4586 |
| Player won | -1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.4463 |
| Draw | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.0951 |
Bet on player
| Payout by casino | Number of combinations | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer won | -1 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.4586 |
| Player won | 1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.4463 |
| Draw | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.0951 |
Bet on draw
| Payout by casino | Number of combinations | Probability | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer won | -1 | 2,292,252,566,437,888 | 0.4586 |
| Player won | -1 | 2,230,518,282,592,256 | 0.4463 |
| Draw | 8 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.0951 |
From looking at the table, it’s easy to see that the eventual possibility of the house winning is still slightly higher than it is for the player. The smallest probability is for the draw, although it does pay out several times the amount risked. Taking this into consideration, the only reasonable strategy is simply to bet on dealer and not risk it with betting on the draw.
Third card and probabilities
The game often pivots when both the house and the player got their two cards, and there is a need for a third card. In this case, it is easier to calculate probabilities associated with draw, win for the dealer or win for the player. The probability of different round outcomes after first two cards have been dealt are summarised below:
| Number of points the player has | Win for player | Win for dealer | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.278792 | 0.654627 | 0.066581 |
| 1 | 0.282833 | 0.647252 | 0.069915 |
| 2 | 0.290303 | 0.634207 | 0.07549 |
| 3 | 0.303386 | 0.615539 | 0.081075 |
| 4 | 0.322084 | 0.579983 | 0.097933 |
| 5 | 0.358488 | 0.537849 | 0.103663 |
| 6 | 0.430362 | 0.427801 | 0.141838 |
| 7 | 0.572657 | 0.285046 | 0.142297 |
| 8 | 0.810911 | 0.094938 | 0.094151 |
| 9 | 0.905475 | 0 | 0.094525 |
Sadly for the player, the decision to buy third card is regulated only by the rules and isn’t left to the player. Dealing of a third card is strictly regulated, otherwise anyone would take the table above and become a millionaire by coming up with a perfect strategy.
